Module 1: Ideation & Validation
The Riskiest Assumptions Matrix
How to deconstruct your business model into falsifiable hypotheses across problem, solution, and willingness-to-pay.
Startups do not fail because they cannot build the software. They fail because their fundamental assumptions about human behavior were incorrect.
Categorizing Assumptions
Divide every hypothesis into three distinct risk tiers:
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 1. Problem Risk (Do they actually have this pain?) │
│ - Is it frequent? Is it expensive? Is it urgent? │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 2. Solution Risk (Does our proposed fix work?) │
│ - Does it fit existing habits? Is switching easy? │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 3. Market Risk (Will they pay sustainable rates?) │
│ - What is ACV? Who has card signing authority? │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Prioritization Scoring: The ICE Framework
Score each assumption from 1 to 10:
- Impact ($I$): If this assumption is false, does the business instantly die? (10 = fatal).
- Confidence ($C$): How much objective behavioral evidence do you already possess? (1 = zero evidence).
- Ease ($E$): How fast and cheap is the test? (10 = a 20-min phone call).
Test the highest-scoring assumption first before writing a single line of frontend code.
Continue to Testing Landing Pages & Intent.
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